如是說999

  原创 2018-03-26 Tyler Durden 新纪元扬升之光

PetroYuan Futures Open; Over 10 BillIon Notional Trades In FirstHour

翻译：荷光*凯，微信公众平台：xinjiyuanlove

After allthe preparation, all the expectation, cheerleading and doomsaying, China’sYuan-denominated crude oil futures contract began trading tonight and appearsto be off a good start with well over 10 billion yuan notional traded withinthe first hour.

在所有的准备工作、所有的期待、鼓励和展望之后，中国的人民币计价原油期货合约开始于今晚开始交易，而且开局似乎良好，在第一个小时内就有超过100亿元的名义交易。

So far it has tracked WTI futures well, trading at around a$2 premium to WTI (when translated from yuan to USD)…

迄今为止，追踪到的WTI期货走势良好，WTI交易价格大约每桶2美元溢价。（人民币换算为美元）

Additionally,well over 23,000 contracts have traded within the first hour for a notionaltrading volume of over 10 billion yuan – more than $1.5 billion notional…signaling significant demand.

此外，在第一个小时内有超过23000个合约交易，名义交易额超过了100亿元——超过15亿美元的名义交易量。这意味着巨大的需求。

As we most recently noted, after numerous “falsestarts” over the last decade, the “petroyuan” is now real and China will setout to challenge the “petrodollar” for dominance. AdamLevinson, managing partner and chief investment officer at hedgefund manager Graticule Asset Management Asia (GAMA), already warned last year that China launching ayuan-denominated oil futures contract will shock those investors who have notbeen paying attention.

正如我们最近所指出的，在过去的十年里经历了无数次“不成功的启动”之后，“石油元”现在成为真实的，中国将开始挑战“石油美元”的主导地位。对冲基金管理公司——资产管理亚洲基金管理合伙人兼首席投资总监亚当莱文森去年就曾警告说，中国推出人民币计价的石油期货合约将会令那些没有引起关注的投资者感到震惊。

This could be a death blow for an already weakening U.S.dollar, and the rise of the yuan as the dominant world currency.

这可能是对已经走弱的美元的致命打击。人民币会成为世界主要货币而崛起。

A Warning for Investors Since 2015

2015年以来对投资者的警告

Back in 2015, the first of a number of strikes against thepetrodollar was dealt by China. Gazprom Neft, the third-largest oil producer inRussia, decided to move away from the dollar and towards the yuan andother Asian currencies.

早在2015年，中国首次针对石油美元进行了一系列冲击。俄罗斯天然气工业公司是俄罗斯第三大石油生产商，它决定放弃美元，转向人民币和其他亚洲货币。

Iran followed suit the same year, using the yuan with a host ofother foreign currencies in trade, including Iranian oil.

同年，伊朗也效仿伊朗的做法，在贸易中使用了大量的其他外币，包括伊朗的石油。

During the same year China also developed its Silk Road, while the yuan was beginning to establishmore dominance in the European markets.

同年，中国也发展了丝绸之路，人民币开始在欧洲市场建立更多的支配地位。

Despiteaccounting for much of the world’s growth in demand in the 21st Century,China’s oil imports have been all over the map in recent months. In April,China imported 7.4 million barrels per day, a record high and enough to make itthe world’s largest oil importer. But a month later, imports plummeted to just5.5 million barrels per day.

在21世纪，中国的石油需求增长很大，近几个月来，中国已经从全球开始石油进口。今年4月，中国每天进口740万桶石油，创历史新高，足以使中国成为全球最大的石油进口国。但在一个月后，进口量骤降至每天550万桶。

Thatproblem has since gone away, signaling China’s rise to oil dominance…

毫无疑问，这标志着中国的崛起，成为为石油的主导者。

The Slippery Slope to the Petroyuan Begins Here

石油美元从此开始滑坡

Thepetrodollar is backed by Treasuries, so it can help fuel U.S. deficit spending.Take that away, and the U.S. is in trouble.

石油美元得到了美国国债的支持，因此它可以帮助美国减少赤字开支。把这些因素去掉，美国就有麻烦了。

It lookslike that time has come…

看起来时间已经到了。

A death blow that began in 2015 hit again in 2017 when Chinabecame the world’s largest consumer of imported crude…

2015年开始的一场致命打击在2017年再次发生，那时中国成为了全球最大的进口原油消费国。

Now thatChina is the world’s leading consumer of oil, Beijing can exert some realleverage over Saudi Arabia to pay for crude in yuan. It’s suspected that thisis what’s motivating Chinese officials to make a full-fledged effort torenegotiate their trade deal.

既然中国是世界上最大的石油消费国，中国政府可以对沙特阿拉伯施加一些实际影响力，以人民币支付原油的价格。据猜测，这促使了中国官员全力以赴重新谈判他们的贸易协议。

So fast-forward to now, and the final blow to the petrodollarcould happen starting today. We hinted at this possibility back in September 2017…

回到到现在，对石油美元的最后打击可能从今天开始。我们在2017年9月暗示了这种可能性。

With majoroil exporters finally having a viable way to circumvent the petrodollar system,the U.S. economy could soon encounter severely troubled waters.

随着主要石油出口国终于有了一种可行的方法来绕过石油美元体系，美国经济可能很快就会遇到严重问题。

First ofall, the dollar’s value depends massively on its use as an oil trade vehicle.When that goes away, we will likely see a strong and steady decline in thedollar’s value.

首先，美元的价值很大程度上取决于它作为石油贸易工具的用途。当这种情况消失时，我们很可能会看到美元的价值出现巨大而稳定的下跌。

Once the oil markets are upended, the yuan has an opportunity to become the dominant world currencyoverall. This will further weaken the dollar.

一旦石油市场被颠覆，人民币就有机会成为全球主要货币。这将进一步削弱美元。

The Petrodollar’s Downfall Could be a Lift for Gold

石油美元的贬值可能对金价有提振作用。

Amongst all the trouble ahead for the dollar, there are somegood news too. The U.S. might have ditched the gold standard in the 1970’s, butwith gold making a return to world headlines… we could see a resurgence.

在所有的美元的麻烦中，也有一些好消息。美国已经在1970年代抛弃了金本位制，但随着黄金价值的重新回归……我们会看到复苏的迹象。

For thefirst time since our nation abandoned the gold standard decades ago, physicalgold is being reintroduced to the global monetary system in a major way. Thatalone is incredibly good news for gold owners.

自从几十年前我们国家放弃金本位以来，实物黄金正以一种主要方式重新引入全球货币体系。对于黄金拥有者来说，这是一个非常好的消息。

A reintroduction of gold to the global economy could result in anotable rise in gold prices. It’s safe to assume exporters are more likelyto choose a gold-backed financial instrument over onecreated out of thin air any day of the week.

黄金对全球经济的重新介入，可能导致金价出现显著上涨。可以肯定的是，出口商更有可能选择一种由黄金支撑的金融工具，而不是选择每星期中凭空创造出来的金融工具。

Soonafter, we could see more and more nations jump on the bandwagon, resulting in asubstantial rise in gold prices.

不久之后，我们会看到越来越多的国家加入这一行列，从而导致金价大幅上涨。

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